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Markets @ all time high
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The Sensex has hit a new all time high a day before Diwali, breaking its previous high of 21206 after 70 months.
Will liquidity triumph fundamentals or will fundamentals catch up with the market? That is the question troubling buyers who have missed the 3500-odd point surge in the Sensex since late August, and are still hesitant to take the plunge because of worrying economic data.
Contrast this with the enthusiasm among FIIs, who have net bought around Rs 28,000 crore of shares in the last two months. Driving much of this liquidity is the US Federal Reserve’s decision to postpone the phased reduction in its bond purchases, also termed quantitative easing.
Second quarter corporate earnings have been better than expected, but analysts are not convinced that a broad-based recovery in earnings is underway yet. Earlier this week, RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points and warned that inflation would remain high for the rest of this financial year, and hinted at more hikes ahead. Business confidence is weak, and industry captains are worried at the prospect of legal action because of the Supreme Court’s recent initiatives. The market may still overlook these concerns if the BJP does well in the upcoming state elections. Liquidity apart, hopes of a BJP victory in next year’s general elections has also been a key driver of the recent rally.
However the markets remain extremely volatile and react sharply to global and domestic news flows. So it becomes impossible to predict whether it will go up or down with certainty. If you are a trader, you have to adjust to the market, understand it, learn from it and then be proven wrong. The risks here are also opportunities. Every opportunity also has a risk. You have to take a guess and hope everything goes right. Historically, November and especially December have been very good for the market.
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